Failed forecasts: the end of crypto that never arrives

It might sound like a joke to anyone who hasn’t been following the sector, but the “ death ” of Bitcoin has been “declared” at least 469 times. That’s the tally according to the people behind the website 99 Bitcoins.com. Their record ranges from tweets and interviews to columns in media outlets like Newsweek, Boston Globe and The Washington Post. The first “prophecy” was published in 2010, just a year after Bitcoin first appeared, in The Underground Economist with the headline “Why Bitcoin can’t be a currency”.

Although the site gathers defenders of the popular cryptocurrency, which emerged in 2009, its review is an interesting exercise through which to observe the evolution of blockchain technology and the extreme volatility that characterizes most cryptocurrencies. But cryptocurrencies have not only failed to disappear; they’ve actually multiplied – the website Coin Market Cap counts more than 22,000 at the moment, although it’s true that many of them have little to no impact.

Crypto potential and challenges to resolve

The fact that the many predictions of the death of crypto haven’t come true is not to say that their development has been without upset. On the contrary, the crypto market has had to contend with numerous ups and downs. One of the most recent occurred in November with the collapse of the exchange platform FTX and the resulting fall in the values of the main cryptocurrencies.

Although the focuses of those who predicted the end of cryptocurrencies have been diverse, the more enthusiastic observers also highlight the potential: “Crypto is forward-looking – its key innovations involve long-term societal changes (learning how to self-custody assets, reimagining what money is, creating new ways of collective action). And while today we’re confronted with all the ways crypto can fail, there are still many timelines where it can succeed,” Daniel Kuhn recently summed up on the specialist website Coin Desk.